Punter

I’m an avid West Coast supporter, but even I have to have to be realistic at times and say that Punter’s tip for the Eagles vs. Blues clash is most likely WAY out. I live in hope, but my expectations are not very high for an Eagles upset.


All in all, it seems all of the favorites have been picked and a fairly boring week of tips… but then my eye spies the Demons vs. Dockers game

At first glance something seems to have gone terribly wrong as I thought these sort of odds shouldn’t physically be able to come out of the Punter system ???? I will be most interested to look at the numbers for that game, as it seems that there is something special about those stats. Let’s hope for Melbourne’s sake the score is not that bad.

Home Team	Probability	Away Team	Probability	Gold	Silver
Eagles 71.883% Blues 28.117% Bookie: $2.35 Punter: $1.39 Bookie: $1.62 Punter: $3.56
Cats 70.998% Lions 29.002% Bookie: $1.18 Punter: $1.41 Bookie: $5.10 Punter: $3.45
Hawks 58.837% Magpies 41.163% Bookie: $1.55 Punter: $1.70 Bookie: $2.50 Punter: $2.43
Tigers 45.878% Saints 54.122% Bookie: $2.45 Punter: $2.18 Bookie: $1.57 Punter: $1.85
Crows 61.846% Kangaroos 38.154% Bookie: $1.50 Punter: $1.62 Bookie: $2.65 Punter: $2.62
Swans 57.395% Western Bulldogs 42.605% Bookie: $1.48 Punter: $1.74 Bookie: $2.72 Punter: $2.35
Demons 2.296% Dockers 97.704% Bookie: $3.65 Punter: $43.55 Bookie: $1.30 Punter: $1.02
Bombers 25.086% Power 74.914% Bookie: $3.15 Punter: $3.99 Bookie: $1.38 Punter: $1.33
Premiership: 31 correct picks from 48 games. 64.58% accuracy. Pre-Season: 11 correct picks from 15 games. 73.33% accuracy. Total: 42 correct picks from 63 games. 66.67% accuracy.				11/16 69% 4/7 57% 15/23 65%	9/14 64% 4/4 100% 13/18 72%

Well, from the look of things this week, the ANZAC day clash should be good game, with very little between the two teams. Might be a tiny bit of value in it, but I doubt it.

The game that stands out for me is the Power vs. Saints game. I don’t rate the Saints highly at the best of times, and statistically speaking Port has a an envious record at home. That said, I would have thought that Saints would be at least even odds given the poor start for the Power this year. Should be interesting.

Home Team	Probability	Away Team	Probability	Gold	Silver
Magpies 49.849% Bombers 50.151% Bookie: $1.53 Punter: $2.01 Bookie: $2.50 Punter: $1.99
Dockers 15.352% Cats 84.648% Bookie: $4.85 Punter: $6.51 Bookie: $1.18 Punter: $1.18
Blues 38.289% Crows 61.711% Bookie: $2.12 Punter: $2.61 Bookie: $1.72 Punter: $1.62
Western Bulldogs 62.676% Eagles 37.324% Bookie: $1.25 Punter: $1.60 Bookie: $4.00 Punter: $2.68
Power 36.197% Saints 63.803% Bookie: $1.67 Punter: $2.76 Bookie: $2.20 Punter: $1.57
Lions 62.259% Demons 37.741% Bookie: $1.10 Punter: $1.61 Bookie: $7.00 Punter: $2.65
Kangaroos 63.804% Swans 36.196% Bookie: $1.95 Punter: $1.57 Bookie: $1.85 Punter: $2.76
Hawks 61.578% Tigers 38.422% Bookie: $1.23 Punter: $1.62 Bookie: $4.20 Punter: $2.60
Premiership: 25 correct picks from 40 games. 62.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 11 correct picks from 15 games. 73.33% accuracy. Total: 36 correct picks from 55 games. 65.45% accuracy.				8/13 62% 4/7 57% 12/20 60%	7/12 58% 4/4 100% 11/16 69%

Hi all,

This is my first attempt at getting some tips up, albeit halfway through a round. I think the formatting will need some attention into the future, but I think you get the general idea

I hope to be adding a little more content along the way as well as just Tips, but small steps first.

From what’s left, think the Tigers might be worth a shot, with the Magpies price possibly being artificially pushed down by the unclean masses (i.e. Collingwood supporters)

AFL Premiership 2008 - Round 3 Home Team Probability Away Team Probability Gold Silver Western Bulldogs 34.785% Saints 65.215% Bookie: $2.75 Punter: $2.87 Bookie: $1.45 Punter: $1.53 Kangaroos 43.789% Hawks 56.211% Bookie: $2.75 Punter: $2.28 Bookie: $1.45 Punter: $1.78 Eagles 39.661% Dockers 60.339% Bookie: $1.95 Punter: $2.52 Bookie: $1.85 Punter: $1.66 Lions 45.233% Swans 54.767% Bookie: $1.71 Punter: $2.21 Bookie: $2.13 Punter: $1.83 Bombers 57.083% Blues 42.917% Bookie: $1.67 Punter: $1.75 Bookie: $2.20 Punter: $2.33 Cats 66.212% Demons 33.788% Bookie: $1.02 Punter: $1.51 Bookie: $14.00 Punter: $2.96 Tigers 45.332% Magpies 54.668% Bookie: $3.20 Punter: $2.21 Bookie: $1.35 Punter: $1.83 Crows 69.070% Power 30.930% Bookie: $1.68 Punter: $1.45 Bookie: $2.18 Punter: $3.23 Premiership: 8 correct picks from 16 games. 50.00% accuracy. Pre-Season: 11 correct picks from 15 games. 73.33% accuracy. Total: 19 correct picks from 31 games. 61.29% accuracy. 4/6 67% 4/7 57% 8/13 62% 3/6 50% 4/4 100% 7/10 70%

Over to the PokerPlasm blog sphere!