I’m afraid I can’t say the same for the poor, overconfident, humans over the past few weeks. To point out the stupidly obvious, I could have purposely stupid decisions to make the computer look better, but you’ll have to just trust me that I suck at tipping football games. So much so that I have managed a meager 25% hit rate so far. I will bravely continue on into the finals, but I would need a small miracle at this rate just to break even.

Without further a do, the tips for the last round of the 2008 home & away, and then launch into another finals campaign. This round looks to be one of the hardest I’ve seen in a while. On really little more than a hunch, I’m going to say that the Bulldogs will win over the Crows. My rationale??? I just think so. I really don’t have anything much better than that at the moment.

Currently:
Punter: 6/8 (75%)
Me: 2/8 (25%)

My overrides this week:
Bulldogs to beat the Crows

Quote of the week:
“The only way to comprehend what mathematicians mean by Infinity is to contemplate the extent of human stupidity.”
Voltaire (François-Marie Arouet)

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Dockers:    46.794% $2.14 $2.65 Magpies:    53.206% $1.88 $1.48
Kangaroos:    56.231% $1.78 $1.19 Power:    43.769% $2.28 $4.75
Cats:    74.961% $1.33 $1.01 Eagles:    25.039% $3.99 $15.00
Crows:    61.940% $1.61 $1.82 Western Bulldogs:    38.060% $2.63 $2.00
Blues:    46.666% $2.14 $2.95 Hawks:    53.334% $1.87 $1.40
Swans:    67.139% $1.49 $1.48 Lions:    32.861% $3.04 $2.65
Demons:    23.040% $4.34 $4.75 Tigers:    76.960% $1.30 $1.19
Bombers:    28.646% $3.49 $6.25 Saints:    71.354% $1.40 $1.12
Premiership: 106 correct tips from 168 games. 63.10% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 116 correct tips from 183 games. 63.39% accuracy.	49/69 71% 4/7 57% 53/76 70%	36/60 60% 3/4 75% 39/64 61%

Now if I had of done these last night the Dogs would be an obvious override, but given that game is over, I’m just going to have to pick another one. I’m looking at either the Crows over the Saints, or Swans over the Magpies. I’m tempted to go with the Crows again, but I’m not sure if they’re capable of three in a row, so I’m going to go with Swans.

Currently:
Punter: 5/7 (71.4%)
Me: 2/7 (28.6%)

My overrides this week:
Swans to beat the Magpies

Reference of the week:
Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? (Paper)
Edward Lorenz

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Western Bulldogs:    45.418% $2.20 $1.12 Bombers:    54.582% $1.83 $6.25
Tigers:    61.576% $1.62 $1.35 Dockers:    38.424% $2.60 $3.20
Power:    57.788% $1.73 $1.37 Demons:    42.212% $2.37 $3.10
Lions:    82.124% $1.22 $1.45 Blues:    17.876% $5.59 $2.75
Magpies:    56.647% $1.77 $1.74 Swans:    43.352% $2.31 $2.10
Cats:    62.028% $1.61 $1.15 Kangaroos:    37.972% $2.63 $5.25
Saints:    59.236% $1.69 $1.75 Crows:    40.764% $2.45 $2.08
Eagles:    45.682% $2.19 $6.25 Hawks:    54.318% $1.84 $1.12
Premiership: 100 correct tips from 160 games. 62.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 110 correct tips from 175 games. 62.86% accuracy.	48/67 72% 4/7 57% 52/74 70%	32/56 57% 3/4 75% 35/60 58%

Currently:
Punter: 5/6 (83.3%)
Me: 1/6 (16.7%)

My overrides this week:
Crows to beat the Bombers

Quote of the week:
“Most of what we call management consists of making it difficult for people to get their work done.”
Peter Drucker

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Power:    27.228% $3.67 $2.90 Magpies:    72.772% $1.37 $1.42
Bombers:    57.691% $1.73 $2.13 Crows:    42.309% $2.36 $1.72
Demons:    12.524% $7.98 $1.91 Eagles:    87.476% $1.14 $1.91
Lions:    38.661% $2.59 $2.10 Western Bulldogs:    61.339% $1.63 $1.75
Swans:    29.634% $3.37 $4.35 Cats:    70.366% $1.42 $1.22
Tigers:    28.399% $3.52 $4.25 Hawks:    71.601% $1.40 $1.23
Blues:    41.183% $2.43 $2.20 Kangaroos:    58.817% $1.70 $1.68
Dockers:    46.200% $2.16 $1.60 Saints:    53.800% $1.86 $2.35
Premiership: 96 correct tips from 152 games. 63.16% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 106 correct tips from 167 games. 63.47% accuracy.	46/63 73% 4/7 57% 50/70 71%	32/55 58% 3/4 75% 35/59 59%

It’s official, I suck at tipping football games. My computer is conclusively beating the crap out of me after a few rounds, and if this continues on, I’ll be lucky if I can pick one game a year when I go to revise the ratios. Fair enough the computer is probably not as good as it seems, that would actually require to provide it some form of competition (i.e. not me) to fairly compare it to. In my defense, the Lions have dropped the ball for me over the last couple of weeks at the last second. I won’t make that mistake again this week …. I hope.

I think this first one is a fairly safe bet. I can’t see the Kangaroos getting up over the Bulldogs. Then I spy the Crows. A close game by Punter standards, but a gut feeling from me says Crows. I must say this messes with the head, as you wonder why th computer came up with the numbers and if there is some subtle facto that you are overlooking. Not worth dwelling on unless you want a headache. On that note, I’m also going to pick the Crows too.

Currently:
Punter: 4/4 (100%)
Me: 0/4 (0%)

My overrides this week:
Bulldogs to beat the Kanagroos
Crows to beat the Tigers

Quote of the week:
“Artificial Intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.”
Anonymous

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Demons:    14.295% $7.00 $13.00 Cats:    85.705% $1.17 $1.03
Blues:    62.456% $1.60 $1.24 Power:    37.544% $2.66 $4.10
Hawks:    62.632% $1.60 $1.21 Lions:    37.368% $2.68 $4.50
Magpies:    35.895% $2.79 $2.30 Saints:    64.105% $1.56 $1.63
Swans:    64.717% $1.55 $1.45 Dockers:    35.283% $2.83 $2.77
Kangaroos:    61.179% $1.63 $2.30 Western Bulldogs:    38.821% $2.58 $1.62
Crows:    49.799% $2.01 $1.63 Tigers:    50.201% $1.99 $2.30
Eagles:    25.101% $3.98 $2.60 Bombers:    74.899% $1.34 $1.50
Premiership: 91 correct tips from 144 games. 63.19% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 101 correct tips from 159 games. 63.52% accuracy.	44/59 75% 4/7 57% 48/66 73%	29/52 56% 3/4 75% 32/56 57%

Either way, I managed to nicely dance around a winner last week, but given some of the results it would require some brass balls to pick some of the winners. With Punter only getting 2 correct last week, you’d think there would be ample options, but even looking back now it would be very hard to make a hindsight call. On to this week.

Again this week I see two possibilities. Firstly I think the Lions are better than average chance after a fair showing last week, and I think the Western Derby could go topsy tuvey. I think I will definitely pick the Lions, but the Eagles, hmmm. Not exactly in what one would call red hot form (1 from about the last 8), but I just have a feeling about this game, so I’m gonna go with the Eagles as well.

Currently:
Punter: 2/2 (100%)
Me: 0/2 (0%)

My overrides this week:
Lions to beat the Kanagroos
Eagles to beat the Dockers

Quote of the week:
“CONSULTING: If you’re not a part of the solution, there’s good money to be made in prolonging the problem.”
Larry Kersten

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Magpies:    36.140% $2.77 $2.90 Hawks:    63.860% $1.57 $1.42
Bombers:    68.985% $1.45 $1.22 Demons:    31.015% $3.22 $4.35
Crows:    45.363% $2.20 $1.65 Blues:    54.637% $1.83 $2.25
Cats:    61.864% $1.62 $1.16 Tigers:    38.136% $2.62 $5.35
Kangaroos:    51.377% $1.95 $2.20 Lions:    48.623% $2.06 $1.68
Western Bulldogs:    53.219% $1.88 $1.48 Swans:    46.781% $2.14 $2.67
Saints:    63.681% $1.57 $1.15 Power:    36.319% $2.75 $5.50
Dockers:    74.790% $1.34 $1.55 Eagles:    25.210% $3.97 $2.47
Premiership: 84 correct tips from 136 games. 61.76% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 94 correct tips from 151 games. 62.25% accuracy.	41/56 73% 4/7 57% 45/63 71%	26/49 53% 3/4 75% 29/53 55%

There are only a couple of options IMO this week. I would think that Lions are a better chance than they are shown as, and for some reason I would have picked the Dockers over the Power. Now the question that I have is, how much do I trust my judgment? I think the dockers are out as logic says that they are not likely winners at the best of times. That leaves the Lions. Now I could chicken out of this very easily and say I don’t know, but given the averages I know that Punter gets about three games wrong each week. I think with this info, I need to make a new rule that I must make at least one override each week. With that, the Lions it is.

Currently:
Punter: 1/1 (100%
Me: 0/1 (0%)

Quote of the week:
“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.”
Albert Einstein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks: 50.284% $1.99 $3.15 Cats: 49.716% $2.01 $1.37
Bombers: 37.992% $2.63 $3.70 Magpies: 62.008% $1.61 $1.29
Eagles: 22.483% $4.45 $5.75 Saints: 77.517% $1.29 $1.14
Tigers: 57.010% $1.75 $1.63 Lions: 42.990% $2.33 $2.28
Swans: 53.247% $1.88 $1.44 Crows: 46.753% $2.14 $2.85
Power: 67.179% $1.49 $1.58 Dockers: 32.821% $3.05 $2.42
Demons: 16.548% $6.04 $4.75 Kangaroos: 83.452% $1.20 $1.19
Western Bulldogs: 66.754% $1.50 $1.28 Blues: 33.246% $3.01 $3.75
Premiership: 82 correct tips from 128 games. 64.06% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 92 correct tips from 143 games. 64.34% accuracy.	40/53 75% 4/7 57% 44/60 73%	25/45 56% 3/4 75% 28/49 57%

An interesting fact out of this was that more often that not, humans are over confident in their general predictions, and especially when experts were confronted with the fact that the algorithms might hold balance in the situation of a tie breaker decision. One approach taken to limit this human over confidence was to limit the number of times that a human could override the decision of the algorithm. 10% was a number stated in on place, but a sensible controlling factor was also put into place. If the incorrect number of overridden decisions exceeded 50%, then the number of overriding decisions should be reduced. Seems logical really, if the computer wins more often, then let it choose more often.

So, here is how this is going to work. Each week I’ll put up my tips, and then use the following rule set to possibly make some overriding decisions, and then look and see if the combined decisions improve the overall performance. This is not a replacement for the improvement of Punter, but instead might actually help identify trends to target the learning of Punter. For the 07 home & away season I’m averaging about 5 per week, so if I can even improve on 1 per week, that will be a big boost.

Rules:

• A maximum of 2 overrides can be made each week. That is 25% of the tips.
• At the end of the season, the performance will be reviewed, and we might adjust how many overrides can be made.

Now, I’d hardly call myself an expert tipper (or I wouldn’t build Punter, would I). The challenge that I have is if anyone reckons that can go one up on me using the rules above, then feel free to post you’re alternatives as comments to the tips page each week. Ok, now the tips.

My overrides for this week:

• Magpies will beat the Kangaroos

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Kangaroos:    53.785% $1.86 $2.75 Magpies:    46.215% $2.16 $1.46
Cats:    57.334% $1.74 $1.58 Western Bulldogs:    42.666% $2.34 $2.40
Tigers:    50.180% $1.99 $1.60 Bombers:    49.820% $2.01 $2.35
Lions:    58.228% $1.72 $1.10 Eagles:    41.772% $2.39 $7.50
Saints:    49.944% $2.00 $2.80 Hawks:    50.056% $2.00 $1.45
Blues:    28.260% $3.54 $2.35 Swans:    71.740% $1.39 $1.62
Power:    14.068% $7.11 $2.05 Crows:    85.932% $1.16 $1.78
Dockers:    67.032% $1.49 $1.44 Demons:    32.968% $3.03 $2.85
Premiership: 76 correct tips from 120 games. 63.33% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 86 correct tips from 135 games. 63.70% accuracy.	39/51 76% 4/7 57% 43/58 74%	20/40 50% 3/4 75% 23/44 52%

Well the split round is over, and we’re back into a normal ol’ weekend of footy. My percentages didn’t budge too much over the last fortnight, but the Dons & the Pies did come good for me.

The forecast for this weekend:
Friday night will bring a tight arm wrestle, finally seeing the Saints getting and edge. This will continue onto Saturday afternoon until a strong hiding in the form of Geelong belting Freo all over the park. Saturday evening should return to some tight arm wrestles, before Sunday where there is a high likelihood that an severely undermanned Swans will be blown away by a far stronger Hawks unit. The rest of Sunday should be pretty clear sailing with the Bulldogs easily accounting for cellar dwelling Demons.

Quote of the week:
“The wise man questions the wisdom of others because he questions his own, the foolish man, because it is different from his own.”
Leo Stein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Blues:    46.620% $2.15 $1.90 Saints:    53.380% $1.87 $2.00
Magpies:    56.906% $1.76 $1.37 Crows:    43.094% $2.32 $2.88
Cats:    85.754% $1.17 $1.07 Dockers:    14.246% $7.02 $11.00
Bombers:    46.116% $2.17 $2.38 Lions:    53.884% $1.86 $1.64
Power:    50.122% $2.00 $1.50 Kangaroos:    49.878% $2.00 $1.95
Hawks:    49.865% $2.01 $1.35 Swans:    50.135% $1.99 $2.10
Western Bulldogs:    71.571% $1.40 $1.06 Demons:    28.429% $3.52 $3.50
Eagles:    56.124% $1.78 $1.55 Tigers:    43.876% $2.28 $1.84
Premiership: 72 correct tips from 112 games. 64.29% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 82 correct tips from 127 games. 64.57% accuracy.	37/49 76% 4/7 57% 41/56 73%	19/37 51% 3/4 75% 22/41 54%

The tips are out, and I look forward to some interesting games for the next couple of weekends. The closeness of the Eagles says that perhaps their $10 price tag might be of some value . . . but perhaps it’s the human in me, but I’m still not 100% convinced.

The two I have my eye on this week(s) are the Dons & the Pies. Apart from playing in Perth, I think the Bombers are a lot closer than their odds would indicate, and at $2.50 might be worth a little bit. The Magpies are the interesting one for me. Something has the Pies fans spooked (or the Swans supporters with the tails in the air), and Sydney seem to have an inflated price. Add the fact that Goodes is suspended, and I think that the Magpies should have a real chance of taking it up to the Swans.

Quote of the week:
“If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.”
Niels Bohr

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks:    57.990% $1.72 $1.06 Eagles:    42.010% $2.38 $10.00
Tigers:    58.241% $1.72 $1.66 Blues:    41.759% $2.39 $2.22
Kangaroos:    51.824% $1.93 $1.60 Saints:    48.176% $2.08 $2.40
Western Bulldogs:    80.665% $1.24 $1.13 Power:    19.335% $5.17 $6.25
Demons:    18.327% $5.46 $4.70 Lions:    81.673% $1.22 $1.20
Dockers:    50.679% $1.97 $1.55 Bombers:    49.321% $2.03 $2.50
Crows:    35.541% $2.81 $5.00 Cats:    64.459% $1.55 $1.17
Swans:    49.651% $2.01 $1.46 Magpies:    50.349% $1.99 $2.70
Premiership: 68 correct tips from 104 games. 65.38% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 78 correct tips from 119 games. 65.55% accuracy.	35/46 76% 4/7 57% 39/53 74%	18/33 55% 3/4 75% 21/37 57%

So what’s with this week? When I look at these tips these all read pretty sensibly to me. There are quite a few that are approaching even odds, so we might get some nice close games from the weekend. The Crows are the only ones to be going against the bookie, and given their form against Hawthorn last week, I’m inclined to give them half a chance.

Certain ex (hack) coaches are spraying comments about tanking, but something tells me that with even these sort of comments they aren’t going to spark the Eagles into action this weekend, with a severe hammering looking very much on the cards.

Quote of the week:
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.” A. Einstein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Saints: 50.333% $1.99 $1.85 Dockers: 49.667% $2.01 $1.95
Hawks: 58.362% $1.71 $1.16 Kangaroos: 41.638% $2.40 $5.62
Power: 50.371% $1.99 $1.33 Tigers: 49.629% $2.01 $3.40
Lions: 43.748% $2.29 $1.40 Crows: 56.252% $1.78 $2.95
Eagles: 21.452% $4.66 $5.75 Cats: 78.548% $1.27 $1.15
Demons: 21.625% $4.62 $8.00 Swans: 78.375% $1.28 $1.09
Blues: 61.613% $1.62 $1.33 Bombers: 38.387% $2.61 $3.40
Magpies: 37.413% $2.67 $2.80 Western Bulldogs: 62.587% $1.60 $1.45
Premiership: 64 correct tips from 96 games. 66.67% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 74 correct tips from 111 games. 66.67% accuracy.	32/43 74% 4/7 57% 36/50 72%	17/29 59% 3/4 75% 20/33 61%