Punter

Short & sharp is the order of the day this week. I had the flu last week, so even short & sharp wasn’t something I was too keen on. What can I say, not too many surprises from Punter at this end of the season, and despite clawing one back last week I’ve well and truly had my but kicked. For this week I think I’ll go with the Saints over the Hawks. I’d really like to see the Bulldogs in a grand final after so long, but something tells me that its going to be too big of a task to overcome Geelong.

Currently:
Punter: 8/11 (72.7%)
Me: 3/11 (27.3%)

My override for this week:
Saints to beat the Hawks

Quote of the week:
“Sooner or later, overconfidence meets reality and a correction occurs”
John Heil

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Cats:    66.683% $1.50 $1.10 Western Bulldogs:    33.317% $3.00 $7.00
Hawks:    53.083% $1.88 $1.33 Saints:    46.917% $2.13 $3.30
Finals: 3 correct tips from 6 games. 50.00% accuracy. Premiership: 110 correct tips from 176 games. 62.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 123 correct tips from 197 games. 62.44% accuracy.	0/2 % 51/73 70% 4/7 57% 55/82 67%	3/3 100% 38/62 61% 3/4 75% 44/69 64%

Currently:
Punter: 8/10 (80%)
Me: 2/10 (20%)

My override for this week:
Saints to beat the Magpies

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Western Bulldogs:    55.385% $1.81 $1.75 Swans:    44.615% $2.24 $2.12
Saints:    35.631% $2.81 $2.12 Magpies:    64.369% $1.55 $1.75
Finals: 2 correct tips from 4 games. 50.00% accuracy. Premiership: 110 correct tips from 176 games. 62.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 122 correct tips from 195 games. 62.56% accuracy.	0/1 % 51/73 70% 4/7 57% 55/81 68%	2/2 100% 38/62 61% 3/4 75% 43/68 63%

It’s that time of year again, Finals!!!. Hopefully we’ll get some good contests, even if the Eagles haven’t really had a hope of being in it since Round 1. For those not too savvy with AFL, I think good games are generally put into one of two categories, either a game where there is a nice close games with some pretty good skills on show, or, a game where Collingwood get the buried. Did that sound a little biased? Anyway….

A good close game would the opposite of my tipping ability, as I don’t have a hope of beating the computer. Rightly so the games look very close this week, which promises a good round of finals. Despite Punter going against the flow with the Kanagroos, I’m going to pick the Bulldogs this week to upset the Hawks. Hopefully that Coleman medal theory comes into it’s own, only time will tell.

Currently:
Punter: 7/9 (77.7%)
Me: 2/9 (22.3%)

My overrides this week:
Bulldogs to beat the Hawks

Quote of the week:
“Such is life”
Ned Kelly

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks:    53.305% $1.88 $1.35 Western Bulldogs:    46.695% $2.14 $3.25
Crows:    60.948% $1.64 $1.63 Magpies:    39.052% $2.56 $2.30
Swans:    43.199% $2.31 $1.75 Kangaroos:    56.801% $1.76 $2.10
Cats:    57.970% $1.73 $1.14 Saints:    42.030% $2.38 $6.00
Finals: 0 correct tips from 0 games. 0% accuracy. Premiership: 110 correct tips from 176 games. 62.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 120 correct tips from 191 games. 62.83% accuracy.	0/0 0% 51/73 70% 4/7 57% 55/80 69%	0/0 0% 38/62 61% 3/4 75% 41/66 62%

With all the hype around Buddy Franklin’s 100th goal on the weekend, it got me thinking to if the top goal kicker actually has any influence the premier. This was mainly triggered by the fact that Brendon Fevola nipping at Buddy’s heels, and Carlton aren’t exactly premiership material, so when would two so polar teams produce two key goal kickers, does there is perhaps no advantage to having a dominant forward position anymore in AFL football?

These are some quick numbers that I threw together on the past Coleman medalists, and the corresponding premiers. As you can see, there are only 4 occurrences in the last 20 years where a Coleman medalist has played in a premiership team. Premierships aside, the ladder position of the Coleman medalist’s team might also tell us something. Surely kicking more goals is a good thing, no? Apparently not, at least not in all cases. There are certainly quite a few 1 & 2’s, but finishing positions seem to run the gamut, right down to the wooden spoon, WTF? It is obviously not inconceivable that the wooden spooners would produce a Coleman medalist, but if that is the case, that suggests a seriously unbalanced team. Although it might go without saying, these numbers strongly suggest that a dominant keen forward may not be the only way to win through to a premiership.

On a slight aside, I also did a quick graph of the number of goals kicked by Coleman medalists (or would be Coleman Medalists as the medal was only introduced in 1955). This has not been adjusted to allow for the number of games played in each season, but it is still interesting to examine the goal kicking in AFL over time.