Luck is a funny ol’ thing isn’t it? Well from some extra reading I’ve been doing this week about chaos theory, perhaps there is no such things as luck. If an umpire screws up a decision, how does that ultimately effected the outcome of a match? A point should have been a goal, which means the ball doesn’t get bounced in the middle, but this also subtly means that players are in potentially different positions, they are also now that little bit more tired than they might have otherwise been. Only a little you might argue, but perhaps that little bit of fatigue is the point where injures start to occur? A player is injured? He misses some games, or the rest of the season? A teams fortunes change without that player? Coaches are sacked for less than loosing games. All from one bad decision from an umpire. Not something to dwell on too long, otherwise there is a severe risk of doing your head in…
Either way, I managed to nicely dance around a winner last week, but given some of the results it would require some brass balls to pick some of the winners. With Punter only getting 2 correct last week, you’d think there would be ample options, but even looking back now it would be very hard to make a hindsight call. On to this week.
Again this week I see two possibilities. Firstly I think the Lions are better than average chance after a fair showing last week, and I think the Western Derby could go topsy tuvey. I think I will definitely pick the Lions, but the Eagles, hmmm. Not exactly in what one would call red hot form (1 from about the last 8), but I just have a feeling about this game, so I’m gonna go with the Eagles as well.
Currently:
Punter: 2/2 (100%)
Me: 0/2 (0%)
My overrides this week:
Lions to beat the Kanagroos
Eagles to beat the Dockers
Quote of the week:
“CONSULTING: If you’re not a part of the solution, there’s good money to be made in prolonging the problem.”
Larry Kersten
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Probability
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Punter
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Bookie
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Gold
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Silver
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Magpies:
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36.140%
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$2.77
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$2.90
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Hawks:
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63.860%
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$1.57
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$1.42
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Bombers:
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68.985%
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$1.45
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$1.22
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Demons:
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31.015%
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$3.22
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$4.35
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Crows:
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45.363%
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$2.20
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$1.65
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Blues:
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54.637%
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$1.83
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$2.25
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Cats:
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61.864%
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$1.62
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$1.16
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Tigers:
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38.136%
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$2.62
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$5.35
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Kangaroos:
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51.377%
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$1.95
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$2.20
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Lions:
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48.623%
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$2.06
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$1.68
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Western Bulldogs:
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53.219%
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$1.88
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$1.48
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Swans:
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46.781%
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$2.14
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$2.67
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Saints:
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63.681%
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$1.57
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$1.15
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Power:
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36.319%
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$2.75
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$5.50
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Dockers:
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74.790%
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$1.34
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$1.55
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Eagles:
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25.210%
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$3.97
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$2.47
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Premiership: 84 correct tips from 136 games. 61.76% accuracy.
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Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy.
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Total: 94 correct tips from 151 games. 62.25% accuracy.
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41/56 73%
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4/7 57%
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45/63 71%
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26/49 53%
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3/4 75%
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29/53 55%
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