Punter

God I hate winter, and if there is one thing that I hate more than winter, it’s the flu that comes along with it. Ah well, I was going to see the Sydney game on the weekend, but it was a no brainer that Sydney would clean up against Melbourne. As they say the show must go on, but I will not be the least bit sad to see the warmth return sooner rather than later.

The tips are out, and I look forward to some interesting games for the next couple of weekends. The closeness of the Eagles says that perhaps their $10 price tag might be of some value . . . but perhaps it’s the human in me, but I’m still not 100% convinced.

The two I have my eye on this week(s) are the Dons & the Pies. Apart from playing in Perth, I think the Bombers are a lot closer than their odds would indicate, and at $2.50 might be worth a little bit. The Magpies are the interesting one for me. Something has the Pies fans spooked (or the Swans supporters with the tails in the air), and Sydney seem to have an inflated price. Add the fact that Goodes is suspended, and I think that the Magpies should have a real chance of taking it up to the Swans.

Quote of the week:
“If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.”
Niels Bohr

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks:    57.990% $1.72 $1.06 Eagles:    42.010% $2.38 $10.00
Tigers:    58.241% $1.72 $1.66 Blues:    41.759% $2.39 $2.22
Kangaroos:    51.824% $1.93 $1.60 Saints:    48.176% $2.08 $2.40
Western Bulldogs:    80.665% $1.24 $1.13 Power:    19.335% $5.17 $6.25
Demons:    18.327% $5.46 $4.70 Lions:    81.673% $1.22 $1.20
Dockers:    50.679% $1.97 $1.55 Bombers:    49.321% $2.03 $2.50
Crows:    35.541% $2.81 $5.00 Cats:    64.459% $1.55 $1.17
Swans:    49.651% $2.01 $1.46 Magpies:    50.349% $1.99 $2.70
Premiership: 68 correct tips from 104 games. 65.38% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 78 correct tips from 119 games. 65.55% accuracy.	35/46 76% 4/7 57% 39/53 74%	18/33 55% 3/4 75% 21/37 57%

Some people consider 13 to be an unlucky number, let’s hope not, because if it’s anyworse than my miserable 3 winners last week, then we’re all going to be in trouble. In fairness to myself (and to reclaim some form) some of my tips were border line at best such as the crows game, and perhaps the Demons. The rest were just plain shockers.

So what’s with this week? When I look at these tips these all read pretty sensibly to me. There are quite a few that are approaching even odds, so we might get some nice close games from the weekend. The Crows are the only ones to be going against the bookie, and given their form against Hawthorn last week, I’m inclined to give them half a chance.

Certain ex (hack) coaches are spraying comments about tanking, but something tells me that with even these sort of comments they aren’t going to spark the Eagles into action this weekend, with a severe hammering looking very much on the cards.

Quote of the week:
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.” A. Einstein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Saints: 50.333% $1.99 $1.85 Dockers: 49.667% $2.01 $1.95
Hawks: 58.362% $1.71 $1.16 Kangaroos: 41.638% $2.40 $5.62
Power: 50.371% $1.99 $1.33 Tigers: 49.629% $2.01 $3.40
Lions: 43.748% $2.29 $1.40 Crows: 56.252% $1.78 $2.95
Eagles: 21.452% $4.66 $5.75 Cats: 78.548% $1.27 $1.15
Demons: 21.625% $4.62 $8.00 Swans: 78.375% $1.28 $1.09
Blues: 61.613% $1.62 $1.33 Bombers: 38.387% $2.61 $3.40
Magpies: 37.413% $2.67 $2.80 Western Bulldogs: 62.587% $1.60 $1.45
Premiership: 64 correct tips from 96 games. 66.67% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 74 correct tips from 111 games. 66.67% accuracy.	32/43 74% 4/7 57% 36/50 72%	17/29 59% 3/4 75% 20/33 61%

I’m late, I’m late, I’m late for a very important date. Ok, so I nearly forgot to put my tips up again, anyway…

On the face of things, another boring week, with most tips falling the way of the bookie (although those boring tips pulled in another 7 winners last week). The Demons look down and out at around $3.00, but because Punter has them at even odds with Richmond I’d think they might be half a chance. I’m hanging out for the Bombers game tonight. With the numbers tilted that much, I might also be inclined to look at the Eagles, as they have not seen those sort of percentages for a long time.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Bombers:    16.444% $6.08 $1.88 Eagles:    83.556% $1.20 $1.90
Western Bulldogs:    53.087% $1.88 $1.46 Lions:    46.913% $2.13 $2.70
Dockers:    12.451% $8.03 $1.78 Kangaroos:    87.549% $1.14 $2.00
Swans:    66.610% $1.50 $1.23 Saints:    33.390% $2.99 $4.00
Crows:    52.734% $1.90 $1.95 Hawks:    47.266% $2.12 $1.83
Cats:    68.761% $1.45 $1.18 Power:    31.239% $3.20 $4.70
Magpies:    61.201% $1.63 $1.37 Blues:    38.799% $2.58 $3.00
Tigers:    49.919% $2.00 $1.36 Demons:    50.081% $2.00 $3.10
Premiership: 61 correct tips from 88 games. 69.32% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 71 correct tips from 103 games. 68.93% accuracy.	30/38 79% 4/7 57% 34/45 76%	16/27 59% 3/4 75% 19/31 61%

It lives, it lives… ok, so my computer is a pile of crap, but it is working (for now). Until the next catastrophe I have some more tips, yay.

I’m glad I got my tips out last week, otherwise my cred would be dashed. 7 out 8 was not too bad, but once again all tips were the favorites. Pretty much the same story this week, but with perhaps a less subtle twist. Statistically speaking, the home team wins around 60% of the time, but this week I only have two home teams tipped. Of course this pattens works it’s way out in various forms, but in theory about 4-5 home teams should win this week, but of course there are many factors effecting that.

So who could be a likely candidate (if any)? Given the close nature I think the Kangaroos could be a good chance to rock the boat, and with what should be some home ground advantage, West Coast might have half a chance of getting up. Also, for the record, Port Adelaide have the best record at home, but with a more inform Carlton things could be tight.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Kangaroos:    45.185% $2.21 $5.50 Cats:    54.815% $1.82 $1.15
Tigers:    33.317% $3.00 $2.55 Crows:    66.683% $1.50 $1.50
Bombers:    1.070% $93.47 $6.50 Hawks:    98.930% $1.01 $1.11
Eagles:    33.653% $2.97 $3.90 Swans:    66.347% $1.51 $1.25
Lions:    98.930% $1.01 $1.16 Dockers:    1.070% $93.42 $5.25
Saints:    41.260% $2.42 $2.70 Western Bulldogs:    58.740% $1.70 $1.46
Power:    53.618% $1.87 $1.12 Blues:    46.382% $2.16 $6.00
Demons:    33.669% $2.97 $9.00 Magpies:    66.331% $1.51 $1.06
Premiership: 54 correct tips from 80 games. 67.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 64 correct tips from 95 games. 67.37% accuracy.	24/32 75% 4/7 57% 28/39 72%	16/26 62% 3/4 75% 19/30 63%