Punter

Well it seems that it has been longer than I thought that I had last put up tips. The dreaded flu has struck me down over the last few weeks (not sure if it was swine flu), but I didn’t think that it had bee 4 weeks.

At this stage of the seasons almost everything is now settled for the finals. All tips this weeks look to be pretty solid, except perhaps for the Hawks/Essendon match. Perhaps the most important game this week due to the last finals spot that is up for Grabs, and Hawthron missing a key forward, and Essendon gaining one.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Eagles 64.01% $1.56 N/A Tigers 35.99% $2.78 N/A
Cats 78.57% $1.27 N/A Dockers 21.43% $4.67 N/A
Hawks 83.31% $1.20 N/A Bombers 16.69% $5.99 N/A
Blues 32.67% $3.06 N/A Crows 67.33% $1.49 N/A
Swans 60.71% $1.65 N/A Lions 39.29% $2.54 N/A
Power 40.34% $2.48 N/A Kangaroos 59.66% $1.68 N/A
Demons 29.94% $3.34 N/A Saints 70.06% $1.43 N/A
Magpies 51.20% $1.95 N/A Bulldogs 48.80% $2.05 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 105 correct tips from 168 games. 63% accuracy Total: 110 correct tips from 183 games. 60% accuracy	4/9 44% 55/78 71% 59/87 68%	0/1 0% 30/48 63% 30/49 61%

This week seems to have gone by very fast, but regardless another round of football is upon us. Not much comentary this week, but if anything the Blues and the Crows might be fair cantidates for an upset according to Punter.

Quote of the week:

“Nothing endures but change”

Heraclitus

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Bombers 42.40% $2.36 N/A Bulldogs 57.60% $1.74 N/A
Blues 36.73% $2.72 N/A Swans 63.27% $1.58 N/A
Cats 68.00% $1.47 N/A Demons 32.00% $3.13 N/A
Dockers 20.18% $4.96 N/A Lions 79.82% $1.25 N/A
Magpies 60.35% $1.66 N/A Hawks 39.65% $2.52 N/A
Power 66.86% $1.50 N/A Eagles 33.14% $3.02 N/A
Tigers 42.94% $2.33 N/A Kangaroos 57.06% $1.75 N/A
Saints 61.42% $1.63 N/A Crows 38.58% $2.59 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 75 correct tips from 120 games. 63% accuracy Total: 80 correct tips from 135 games. 59% accuracy	4/9 44% 38/53 72% 42/62 68%	0/1 0% 26/41 63% 26/42 62%

This week does not pose a lot of particularly contriversial decisions. Perhaps the most interesting are the Hawks, and Swans games, with each respectivley being questionable in their ability to win.

Quote of the week:
“There may be fairies at the bottom of the garden. There is no evidence for it, but you can’t prove that there aren’t any, so shouldn’t we be agnostic with respect to fairies?”

Richard Dawkins

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Bulldogs 61.43% $1.63 N/A Magpies 38.57% $2.59 N/A
Swans 59.88% $1.67 N/A Bombers 40.12% $2.49 N/A
Blues 58.02% $1.72 N/A Tigers 41.98% $2.38 N/A
Lions 30.76% $3.25 N/A Cats 69.24% $1.44 N/A
Crows 83.24% $1.20 N/A Dockers 16.76% $5.97 N/A
Hawks 56.67% $1.76 N/A Kangaroos 43.33% $2.31 N/A
Demons 26.95% $3.71 N/A Power 73.05% $1.37 N/A
Eagles 37.52% $2.67 N/A Saints 62.48% $1.60 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 71 correct tips from 112 games. 63% accuracy Total: 76 correct tips from 127 games. 60% accuracy	4/9 44% 36/48 75% 40/57 70%	0/1 0% 24/38 63% 24/39 62%

Somehow I have managed to get these tips out, in between doing bits of my regular job. The week has not been too busy, just a case of managing expectations.  I will probably also have tomanage my expectations for these tips this week after nearly taking a clean sweep. In general though, I suspect it might have been a good week for most people, but that in it’s own right is an interesting thing. For tipping it’s not good if the computer behaves like a human, but a computer that behaves like a human, now thats something that should spark interest in anyone who knows what the turing test is

My best thought for this week is perhaps the Bulldogs, but I can help thinking that the Hawks might close the price gap later in the week (being the premiers), and there may be some better prices for the dogs on offer. The other interesting fact for this week is the Demons vs. the Eagles. Considering that not a lot seperates the teams on the ladder, the Eagles have an enormous percentage comparitivly.

Quote of the week:

“Before we work on artificial intelligence why don’t we do something about natural stupidity?”

Steve Polyak

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Magpies 56.33% $1.78 N/A Bombers 43.67% $2.29 N/A
Demons 18.12% $5.52 N/A Eagles 81.88% $1.22 N/A
Power 43.08% $2.32 N/A Lions 56.92% $1.76 N/A
Tigers 21.31% $4.69 N/A Crows 78.69% $1.27 N/A
Bulldogs 69.79% $1.43 N/A Hawks 30.21% $3.31 N/A
Swans 56.01% $1.79 N/A Kangaroos 43.99% $2.27 N/A
Saints 51.00% $1.96 N/A Cats 49.00% $2.04 N/A
Dockers 61.63% $1.62 N/A Blues 38.37% $2.61 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 66 correct tips from 104 games. 63% accuracy Total: 71 correct tips from 119 games. 60% accuracy	4/9 44% 34/45 76% 38/54 70%	0/1 0% 21/34 62% 21/35 60%

Quote of the week:

“Study the past if you would define the future.”

Confucius

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Blues 24.48% $4.09 N/A Saints 75.52% $1.32 N/A
Bulldogs 56.95% $1.76 N/A Power 43.05% $2.32 N/A
Tigers 32.04% $3.12 N/A Eagles 67.96% $1.47 N/A
Hawks 53.38% $1.87 N/A Lions 46.62% $2.14 N/A
Crows 82.79% $1.21 N/A Kangaroos 17.21% $5.81 N/A
Bombers 62.33% $1.60 N/A Demons 37.67% $2.65 N/A
Swans 18.27% $5.47 N/A Magpies 81.73% $1.22 N/A
Dockers 7.76% $12.89 N/A Cats 92.24% $1.08 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 53 correct tips from 88 games. 60% accuracy Total: 58 correct tips from 103 games. 56% accuracy	4/9 44% 25/35 71% 29/44 66%	0/1 0% 17/29 59% 17/30 57%

Finally things are back on track and we have some respectable looking tips, but of course no matter how nice the numbers look, it’s the results that count. No bookie’s odds to come at the moment, but hopefully I should have those streaming out in the next few weeks. I’m setting up a system to download a continual stream of the odds, so it may yield some interesting information about when odds shift, and perhaps why.

Quote of the week:

“We can allow satellites, planets, suns, universe, nay whole systems of universes, to be governed by laws, but the smallest insect, we wish to be created at once by special act. ”

Charles Darwin

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Tigers 17.85% $5.60 N/A Bulldogs 82.15% $1.22 N/A
Kangaroos 28.58% $3.50 N/A Saints 71.42% $1.40 N/A
Lions 57.25% $1.75 N/A Blues 42.75% $2.34 N/A
Power 48.82% $2.05 N/A Dockers 51.18% $1.95 N/A
Bombers 38.33% $2.61 N/A Crows 61.67% $1.62 N/A
Hawks 41.33% $2.42 N/A Swans 58.67% $1.70 N/A
Eagles 23.26% $4.30 N/A Cats 76.74% $1.30 N/A
Demons 30.60% $3.27 N/A Magpies 69.40% $1.44 N/A
Pre-Season: 5 correct tips from 15 games. 33% accuracy Premiership: 48 correct tips from 80 games. 60% accuracy Total: 53 correct tips from 95 games. 56% accuracy	4/9 44% 21/31 68% 25/40 63%	0/1 0% 17/28 61% 17/29 59%

It’s taken a while, but I’m now capable of spitting out a few megre numbers. All I can say is that with a continual stream of work and other distractions, I can better appreciate the people who had to build the Bell Rock Lighthouse.There is still a bit of work to get my results formatted back into a better format, so for now the basic text version will have to do. Looking at the numbers, there doesn’t seem to anything that breask the status quo with the bookies. The only thing thatI can see is perhaps Adelaide, but otherwise not much there.

Carlton $1.77

West Coast $2.29

Wstn Bulldogs $1.98

Sydney $2.01

Nth Melbourne $2.42

Brisbane $1.70

Fremantle $1.65

Richmond $2.51

St. Kilda $1.20

Melbourne $5.96

Adelaide $2.32

Hawthorn $1.75

Essendon $3.23

Geelong $1.44

Collingwood $1.57

Port Adelaide $2.74

Hi all,

Just putting out a quick message to show that I am still breathing.

It has been a while since I’ve been back to put up any content, and to my horror, somehow I didn’t put up anything for th Grand Final last year!!!

I will be perhaps be a bit delayed in getting tips up this year. At the moment, I’m hoping about April, but I just have to see how it goes. My biggest issue is the co-location of my in-laws at my house at the moment, so we will just have to see how that ends….

Progress on improvements to Punter has stalled over the last few months with many a plan for a recent wedding (at least that’s my excuse, and I’m sticking to it). I have also been trying to bring myself up to speed on aspects of complex systems such as reading on Chaos theory and patterns within complex datasets. I’m now even more confident that the architecture within Punter is a sound decision based on a lot of reading I have done about natural systems.

Anyway, I will try and give an update when things get a little more back to normal.

 Cheers

Hoopa