Punter

Well, it principle it was a good idea last week, but it seems that the system had other plans. Ok, so it wasn’t that bad, and given the results I didn’t really have much chance of picking a winner last week.

There are only a couple of options IMO this week. I would think that Lions are a better chance than they are shown as, and for some reason I would have picked the Dockers over the Power. Now the question that I have is, how much do I trust my judgment? I think the dockers are out as logic says that they are not likely winners at the best of times. That leaves the Lions. Now I could chicken out of this very easily and say I don’t know, but given the averages I know that Punter gets about three games wrong each week. I think with this info, I need to make a new rule that I must make at least one override each week. With that, the Lions it is.

Currently:
Punter: 1/1 (100%
Me: 0/1 (0%)

Quote of the week:
“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.”
Albert Einstein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks: 50.284% $1.99 $3.15 Cats: 49.716% $2.01 $1.37
Bombers: 37.992% $2.63 $3.70 Magpies: 62.008% $1.61 $1.29
Eagles: 22.483% $4.45 $5.75 Saints: 77.517% $1.29 $1.14
Tigers: 57.010% $1.75 $1.63 Lions: 42.990% $2.33 $2.28
Swans: 53.247% $1.88 $1.44 Crows: 46.753% $2.14 $2.85
Power: 67.179% $1.49 $1.58 Dockers: 32.821% $3.05 $2.42
Demons: 16.548% $6.04 $4.75 Kangaroos: 83.452% $1.20 $1.19
Western Bulldogs: 66.754% $1.50 $1.28 Blues: 33.246% $3.01 $3.75
Premiership: 82 correct tips from 128 games. 64.06% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 92 correct tips from 143 games. 64.34% accuracy.	40/53 75% 4/7 57% 44/60 73%	25/45 56% 3/4 75% 28/49 57%

This week I have have something little different to talk about. This is not so much a man Man vs. Machine scenario like that of the famous Kasparov vs. Deep Blue series, but more of a melding of Man & Machine. I’ve been reading about different ways that ‘expert’ knowledge & regression algorithms (formulas to predict outcomes, basically Punter is just a self learning regression algorithm). I’ve been reading about ways that expert knowledge can be added to results from regression algorithms to compliment the final result.

An interesting fact out of this was that more often that not, humans are over confident in their general predictions, and especially when experts were confronted with the fact that the algorithms might hold balance in the situation of a tie breaker decision. One approach taken to limit this human over confidence was to limit the number of times that a human could override the decision of the algorithm. 10% was a number stated in on place, but a sensible controlling factor was also put into place. If the incorrect number of overridden decisions exceeded 50%, then the number of overriding decisions should be reduced. Seems logical really, if the computer wins more often, then let it choose more often.

So, here is how this is going to work. Each week I’ll put up my tips, and then use the following rule set to possibly make some overriding decisions, and then look and see if the combined decisions improve the overall performance. This is not a replacement for the improvement of Punter, but instead might actually help identify trends to target the learning of Punter. For the 07 home & away season I’m averaging about 5 per week, so if I can even improve on 1 per week, that will be a big boost.

Rules:

• A maximum of 2 overrides can be made each week. That is 25% of the tips.
• At the end of the season, the performance will be reviewed, and we might adjust how many overrides can be made.

Now, I’d hardly call myself an expert tipper (or I wouldn’t build Punter, would I). The challenge that I have is if anyone reckons that can go one up on me using the rules above, then feel free to post you’re alternatives as comments to the tips page each week. Ok, now the tips.

My overrides for this week:

• Magpies will beat the Kangaroos

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Kangaroos:    53.785% $1.86 $2.75 Magpies:    46.215% $2.16 $1.46
Cats:    57.334% $1.74 $1.58 Western Bulldogs:    42.666% $2.34 $2.40
Tigers:    50.180% $1.99 $1.60 Bombers:    49.820% $2.01 $2.35
Lions:    58.228% $1.72 $1.10 Eagles:    41.772% $2.39 $7.50
Saints:    49.944% $2.00 $2.80 Hawks:    50.056% $2.00 $1.45
Blues:    28.260% $3.54 $2.35 Swans:    71.740% $1.39 $1.62
Power:    14.068% $7.11 $2.05 Crows:    85.932% $1.16 $1.78
Dockers:    67.032% $1.49 $1.44 Demons:    32.968% $3.03 $2.85
Premiership: 76 correct tips from 120 games. 63.33% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 86 correct tips from 135 games. 63.70% accuracy.	39/51 76% 4/7 57% 43/58 74%	20/40 50% 3/4 75% 23/44 52%

How many idiots does it take to screw in a light bulb? As many as your budget allows for. They’ll all tell you they know how to do it, each will have a different approach, and none will actually have any idea what they are doing. Suffice to say I’ve had a long couple of weeks, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s just hope it’s not that bloody train again. I’ve been doing some interesting reading around some of the data analysis techniques for data mining large datasets, and perhaps in the near future I might be able to employ some of the techniques to provide some more insight into the world of AFL. Very interesting stuff, especially when you take into account that when you buy something online, you could actually be part of one giant experiment…

Well the split round is over, and we’re back into a normal ol’ weekend of footy. My percentages didn’t budge too much over the last fortnight, but the Dons & the Pies did come good for me.

The forecast for this weekend:
Friday night will bring a tight arm wrestle, finally seeing the Saints getting and edge. This will continue onto Saturday afternoon until a strong hiding in the form of Geelong belting Freo all over the park. Saturday evening should return to some tight arm wrestles, before Sunday where there is a high likelihood that an severely undermanned Swans will be blown away by a far stronger Hawks unit. The rest of Sunday should be pretty clear sailing with the Bulldogs easily accounting for cellar dwelling Demons.

Quote of the week:
“The wise man questions the wisdom of others because he questions his own, the foolish man, because it is different from his own.”
Leo Stein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Blues:    46.620% $2.15 $1.90 Saints:    53.380% $1.87 $2.00
Magpies:    56.906% $1.76 $1.37 Crows:    43.094% $2.32 $2.88
Cats:    85.754% $1.17 $1.07 Dockers:    14.246% $7.02 $11.00
Bombers:    46.116% $2.17 $2.38 Lions:    53.884% $1.86 $1.64
Power:    50.122% $2.00 $1.50 Kangaroos:    49.878% $2.00 $1.95
Hawks:    49.865% $2.01 $1.35 Swans:    50.135% $1.99 $2.10
Western Bulldogs:    71.571% $1.40 $1.06 Demons:    28.429% $3.52 $3.50
Eagles:    56.124% $1.78 $1.55 Tigers:    43.876% $2.28 $1.84
Premiership: 72 correct tips from 112 games. 64.29% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 82 correct tips from 127 games. 64.57% accuracy.	37/49 76% 4/7 57% 41/56 73%	19/37 51% 3/4 75% 22/41 54%

God I hate winter, and if there is one thing that I hate more than winter, it’s the flu that comes along with it. Ah well, I was going to see the Sydney game on the weekend, but it was a no brainer that Sydney would clean up against Melbourne. As they say the show must go on, but I will not be the least bit sad to see the warmth return sooner rather than later.

The tips are out, and I look forward to some interesting games for the next couple of weekends. The closeness of the Eagles says that perhaps their $10 price tag might be of some value . . . but perhaps it’s the human in me, but I’m still not 100% convinced.

The two I have my eye on this week(s) are the Dons & the Pies. Apart from playing in Perth, I think the Bombers are a lot closer than their odds would indicate, and at $2.50 might be worth a little bit. The Magpies are the interesting one for me. Something has the Pies fans spooked (or the Swans supporters with the tails in the air), and Sydney seem to have an inflated price. Add the fact that Goodes is suspended, and I think that the Magpies should have a real chance of taking it up to the Swans.

Quote of the week:
“If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.”
Niels Bohr

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Hawks:    57.990% $1.72 $1.06 Eagles:    42.010% $2.38 $10.00
Tigers:    58.241% $1.72 $1.66 Blues:    41.759% $2.39 $2.22
Kangaroos:    51.824% $1.93 $1.60 Saints:    48.176% $2.08 $2.40
Western Bulldogs:    80.665% $1.24 $1.13 Power:    19.335% $5.17 $6.25
Demons:    18.327% $5.46 $4.70 Lions:    81.673% $1.22 $1.20
Dockers:    50.679% $1.97 $1.55 Bombers:    49.321% $2.03 $2.50
Crows:    35.541% $2.81 $5.00 Cats:    64.459% $1.55 $1.17
Swans:    49.651% $2.01 $1.46 Magpies:    50.349% $1.99 $2.70
Premiership: 68 correct tips from 104 games. 65.38% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 78 correct tips from 119 games. 65.55% accuracy.	35/46 76% 4/7 57% 39/53 74%	18/33 55% 3/4 75% 21/37 57%

Some people consider 13 to be an unlucky number, let’s hope not, because if it’s anyworse than my miserable 3 winners last week, then we’re all going to be in trouble. In fairness to myself (and to reclaim some form) some of my tips were border line at best such as the crows game, and perhaps the Demons. The rest were just plain shockers.

So what’s with this week? When I look at these tips these all read pretty sensibly to me. There are quite a few that are approaching even odds, so we might get some nice close games from the weekend. The Crows are the only ones to be going against the bookie, and given their form against Hawthorn last week, I’m inclined to give them half a chance.

Certain ex (hack) coaches are spraying comments about tanking, but something tells me that with even these sort of comments they aren’t going to spark the Eagles into action this weekend, with a severe hammering looking very much on the cards.

Quote of the week:
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.” A. Einstein

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Saints: 50.333% $1.99 $1.85 Dockers: 49.667% $2.01 $1.95
Hawks: 58.362% $1.71 $1.16 Kangaroos: 41.638% $2.40 $5.62
Power: 50.371% $1.99 $1.33 Tigers: 49.629% $2.01 $3.40
Lions: 43.748% $2.29 $1.40 Crows: 56.252% $1.78 $2.95
Eagles: 21.452% $4.66 $5.75 Cats: 78.548% $1.27 $1.15
Demons: 21.625% $4.62 $8.00 Swans: 78.375% $1.28 $1.09
Blues: 61.613% $1.62 $1.33 Bombers: 38.387% $2.61 $3.40
Magpies: 37.413% $2.67 $2.80 Western Bulldogs: 62.587% $1.60 $1.45
Premiership: 64 correct tips from 96 games. 66.67% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 74 correct tips from 111 games. 66.67% accuracy.	32/43 74% 4/7 57% 36/50 72%	17/29 59% 3/4 75% 20/33 61%

I’m late, I’m late, I’m late for a very important date. Ok, so I nearly forgot to put my tips up again, anyway…

On the face of things, another boring week, with most tips falling the way of the bookie (although those boring tips pulled in another 7 winners last week). The Demons look down and out at around $3.00, but because Punter has them at even odds with Richmond I’d think they might be half a chance. I’m hanging out for the Bombers game tonight. With the numbers tilted that much, I might also be inclined to look at the Eagles, as they have not seen those sort of percentages for a long time.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Bombers:    16.444% $6.08 $1.88 Eagles:    83.556% $1.20 $1.90
Western Bulldogs:    53.087% $1.88 $1.46 Lions:    46.913% $2.13 $2.70
Dockers:    12.451% $8.03 $1.78 Kangaroos:    87.549% $1.14 $2.00
Swans:    66.610% $1.50 $1.23 Saints:    33.390% $2.99 $4.00
Crows:    52.734% $1.90 $1.95 Hawks:    47.266% $2.12 $1.83
Cats:    68.761% $1.45 $1.18 Power:    31.239% $3.20 $4.70
Magpies:    61.201% $1.63 $1.37 Blues:    38.799% $2.58 $3.00
Tigers:    49.919% $2.00 $1.36 Demons:    50.081% $2.00 $3.10
Premiership: 61 correct tips from 88 games. 69.32% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 71 correct tips from 103 games. 68.93% accuracy.	30/38 79% 4/7 57% 34/45 76%	16/27 59% 3/4 75% 19/31 61%

It lives, it lives… ok, so my computer is a pile of crap, but it is working (for now). Until the next catastrophe I have some more tips, yay.

I’m glad I got my tips out last week, otherwise my cred would be dashed. 7 out 8 was not too bad, but once again all tips were the favorites. Pretty much the same story this week, but with perhaps a less subtle twist. Statistically speaking, the home team wins around 60% of the time, but this week I only have two home teams tipped. Of course this pattens works it’s way out in various forms, but in theory about 4-5 home teams should win this week, but of course there are many factors effecting that.

So who could be a likely candidate (if any)? Given the close nature I think the Kangaroos could be a good chance to rock the boat, and with what should be some home ground advantage, West Coast might have half a chance of getting up. Also, for the record, Port Adelaide have the best record at home, but with a more inform Carlton things could be tight.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Kangaroos:    45.185% $2.21 $5.50 Cats:    54.815% $1.82 $1.15
Tigers:    33.317% $3.00 $2.55 Crows:    66.683% $1.50 $1.50
Bombers:    1.070% $93.47 $6.50 Hawks:    98.930% $1.01 $1.11
Eagles:    33.653% $2.97 $3.90 Swans:    66.347% $1.51 $1.25
Lions:    98.930% $1.01 $1.16 Dockers:    1.070% $93.42 $5.25
Saints:    41.260% $2.42 $2.70 Western Bulldogs:    58.740% $1.70 $1.46
Power:    53.618% $1.87 $1.12 Blues:    46.382% $2.16 $6.00
Demons:    33.669% $2.97 $9.00 Magpies:    66.331% $1.51 $1.06
Premiership: 54 correct tips from 80 games. 67.50% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 64 correct tips from 95 games. 67.37% accuracy.	24/32 75% 4/7 57% 28/39 72%	16/26 62% 3/4 75% 19/30 63%

GAAAAA, I hate computers!!!! The lateness of these tips is due to the meltdown of my computer, but luckily I’d already drafted this up before disaster stuck. With some ammount of luck I have not lost too much Punter based material, but suffice to say that I don’t have the concentration to provide any commentry for this weeks tips. Fingers crossed that there will be tips for next week, but no doubt an update will be coming soon….

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Crows: 72.763% $1.37 $1.07 Bombers: 27.237% $3.67 $8.50
Magpies: 56.942% $1.76 $1.20 Eagles: 43.058% $2.32 $4.50
Hawks: 52.890% $1.89 $1.41 Western Bulldogs: 47.110% $2.12 $2.90
Lions: 50.084% $2.00 $1.23 Kangaroos: 49.916% $2.00 $4.05
Cats: 65.134% $1.54 $1.12 Blues: 34.866% $2.87 $6.25
Swans: 64.974% $1.54 $1.22 Tigers: 35.026% $2.85 $4.25
Saints: 55.670% $1.80 $1.33 Demons: 44.330% $2.26 $3.30
Dockers: 12.403% $8.06 $1.97 Power: 87.597% $1.14 $1.83
Premiership: 47 correct tips from 72 games. 65.28% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 57 correct tips from 87 games. 65.52% accuracy.	20/28 71% 4/7 57% 24/35 69%	13/22 59% 3/4 75% 16/26 62%

A fairly good result last round with 7 correct, so what does this round hold? I did notice last week that the results of punter did align highly with the bookies. This has perked my interest and will be something worth investigating.

For this week, the Swans seem to be the surprise packet of value. I’m not sure exactly what the history is between these two teams, but I would think Sydney are a good chance of an upset. The Saints could also be a bit of value, but I don’t think I’d want my life to depend on the Saints producing a predictable result.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Magpies:    33.140% $3.02 $4.50 Cats:    66.860% $1.50 $1.21
Blues:    42.350% $2.36 $1.80 Dockers:    57.650% $1.73 $2.00
Power:    28.331% $3.53 $1.56 Swans:    71.669% $1.40 $2.45
Bombers:    37.754% $2.65 $3.25 Tigers:    62.246% $1.61 $1.35
Eagles:    20.185% $4.95 $3.55 Crows:    79.815% $1.25 $1.30
Lions:    63.454% $1.58 $1.23 Saints:    36.546% $2.74 $4.25
Demons:    13.367% $7.48 $12.50 Hawks:    86.633% $1.15 $1.03
Western Bulldogs:    52.177% $1.92 $1.44 Kangaroos:    47.823% $2.09 $2.80
Premiership: 43 correct tips from 64 games. 67.19% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 53 correct tips from 79 games. 67.09% accuracy.	18/24 75% 4/7 57% 22/31 71%	12/20 60% 3/4 75% 15/24 63%

Let the games begin (again). Sideshows aside, it’s back to business. North Melbourne play on the Gold Coast after snubbing them as their new home, and can Melbourne back up the last rounds effort with another win?

The numbers don’t exactly show anything ground breaking this week, with all but one of the predictions aligning very nicely with the bookies. I don’t think there will be much in the Saints clash with both teams being up & down, making it a little unstable to have a stab at. If I had to take one tip, I might look at Carlton, with perhaps some value there.

Also this week, I have a new format for my results. I have tried to streamline the appearance to make it simpler, but if you have any feedback feel free to leave comments about it.

Probability Punter Bookie	Gold	Silver
Saints:    63.698% $1.57 $2.37 Magpies:    36.302% $2.75 $1.62
Hawks:    55.544% $1.80 $1.40 Power:    44.456% $2.25 $3.05
Tigers:    18.578% $5.38 $5.00 Cats:    81.422% $1.23 $1.19
Blues:    37.692% $2.65 $2.05 Lions:    62.308% $1.60 $1.82
Kangaroos:    59.821% $1.67 $1.25 Eagles:    40.179% $2.49 $4.20
Crows:    78.907% $1.27 $1.10 Demons:    21.093% $4.74 $7.50
Swans:    72.778% $1.37 $1.11 Bombers:    27.222% $3.67 $7.25
Dockers:    21.581% $4.63 $2.10 Western Bulldogs:    78.419% $1.28 $1.78
Premiership: 36 correct tips from 56 games. 64.29% accuracy. Pre-Season: 10 correct tips from 15 games. 66.67% accuracy. Total: 46 correct tips from 71 games. 64.79% accuracy.	14/20 70% 4/7 57% 18/27 67%	10/17 59% 3/4 75% 13/21 62%